Every brokerage on the island publishes a monthly market report, and most of them say the same thing: it's a great time to buy, it's also a great time to sell, and have you considered calling us? Some months it feels like the whole island is photocopying one PDF and swapping the logo. So here is our promise. When the numbers are unflattering, we print those too. September has a few. North Kona single-family home sales fell 40% from last September, from 35 closings to 21. You can check that yourself, and the minute you catch us spinning a number like that, you will stop believing anything else we tell you. Fair enough.
A word on who is doing the reading. Brenda has sold property on this island for 35 years and can tell you what the house down the street sold for in 2004, which is either impressive or slightly alarming, depending on whether it was your house. Mark spent 35 years as a real estate attorney reading the paperwork on deals that went sideways, and he now sits on the Hawaii County Real Property Tax Appeals Board, where he listens to people explain why their assessment is too high. Nobody has ever appealed because it was too low. What we actually do differently is not glamorous. We read the Coldwell Banker MLS report, the Hawaii Information Service MLS statistics, and the Title Guaranty recorded deed report, and we check them against each other. Almost nobody bothers, because the three sources disagree, and disagreement is inconvenient. We think it's the interesting part.
The Bottom Line: September at a Glance
If you read nothing else, read this. The details follow for anyone who wants to get into the weeds.
Homes: North Kona single-family sales fell 40% in September, 21 closings against 35 a year ago. The median price didn't move. It held at $1.3 million, flat with last September. For the full year, sales are slightly ahead of 2025 and dollar volume is up 23%.
Listings: Not down, and not piling up either. Kailua-Kona had 153 active homes on October 1, against 151 a month earlier. Pending sales rose from 44 to 47. What we have is a standoff: buyers waiting for a price drop, and sellers who aren't giving them one.
Condos: Prices have fallen further than we expected. The North Kona condo median is down about 8% this year to $570,000, and there's close to nine months of supply. September showed early signs of leveling off, but one month isn't a trend. Condo buyers have real leverage.
South Kona: Six home sales in Captain Cook and Kealakekua, against five last year. Too few to read much into.
Luxury: The top of the market is having a strong year. Hawaii Island closed 85 sales of $3 million and up in the first half of 2026, up 18% from 72, and North Kona and the Kohala Coast accounted for 80 of them. Hawaii Island also led the state in $10 million sales, with 20 of 32. Most of these buyers are from the mainland, and most pay cash.
Rates: The 30-year mortgage rate crossed 7% in late September and hit 7.28% on October 1. That hits financed condo buyers hardest and barely touches the luxury tier.
If you're selling: Kona's prime selling season starts in late November. Get your home ready now, and price it to what is selling today.
If you're buying: Don't wait for home prices to fall. They aren't. Condos are where the negotiating room is.
The Big Picture
Start with count and volume. North Kona single-family homes closed 21 sales worth $31.9 million, down 40% and 37% from September 2025. North Kona condos closed 18 sales worth $14.9 million, down 40% and 69%. South Kona was the one bright spot, with 6 home sales against 5 last year and $9.3 million in volume against $2.8 million.
Now zoom out before anyone panics. Through September, North Kona has closed 285 single-family homes, slightly ahead of the 278 at this point last year, and dollar volume is up 23% to $715.7 million. September 2025 was a busy month, which makes this year's comparison a tough one. One slow month on top of a strong year is a pause, not a collapse. If you want the month before for comparison, here is our August 2026 Kona market update.
So is it a buyer's market? For condos, yes. For single-family homes, it's balanced. Kailua-Kona has about 4.7 months of home inventory, and four to six months is generally considered neutral territory. Homes that are priced right are not sitting, either. Island-wide, Coldwell Banker shows median days on market for single-family homes dropping to 37 from 49 a year ago.
The Numbers
Our three sources disagree on North Kona homes this month, and the reason is worth a minute. Coldwell Banker and Title Guaranty both show 20 sales and a median of about $1.4 million. HIS, pulled a few days later, shows 21 sales, a $1.3 million median, and roughly $800,000 more in volume. That looks like one sale reported late. One closing was enough to move the reported median by tens of thousands of dollars. That is exactly why we lead with transaction count and volume. In a market this thin, the median is a mood ring. The tables below use HIS figures.
North Kona Single-Family Homes
| Sept 2026 | Sept 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Sales | 21 | 35 | Down 40% |
Dollar volume | $31.9M | $50.3M | Down 37% |
Median price | $1,300,000 | $1,295,000 | Up 0.4% |
Year to date sales | 285 | 278 | Up 2.5% |
Year to date volume | $715.7M | $579.7M | Up 23% |
Year to date median | $1,188,550 | $1,260,000 | Down 5.7% |
North Kona Condos
| Sept 2026 | Sept 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Sales | 18 | 30 | Down 40% |
Dollar volume | $14.9M | $48.2M | Down 69% |
Median price | $547,500 | $597,500 | Down 8.4% |
Year to date sales | 200 | 241 | Down 17% |
Year to date volume | $207.7M | $281.2M | Down 26% |
Year to date median | $570,000 | $620,000 | Down 8.1% |
South Kona (Captain Cook and Kealakekua) Single-Family Homes
| Sept 2026 | Sept 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Sales | 6 | 5 | Up 20% |
Dollar volume | $9.3M | $2.8M | Up 233% |
Median price | $812,000 | $620,000 | Up 31% |
Year to date sales | 39 | 60 | Down 35% |
Year to date volume | $43.5M | $48.3M | Down 10% |
Year to date median | $752,000 | $775,000 | Down 3% |
Kailua-Kona Inventory
| Oct 1, 2026 | Sept 1, 2026 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
Active homes | 153 | 151 | Essentially flat |
Pending homes | 47 | 44 | Up 3 |
Home months of supply | 4.7 |
| Balanced |
Active condos | 184 | 197 | Down 13 |
Pending condos | 28 | 24 | Up 4 |
Condo months of supply | 8.7 |
| Up 48% year over year |
Two notes. South Kona's 31% median jump is six sales, so don't read anything into it, in either direction. And the number that matters most this month is not on any one line. It's the combination: sales down 40%, median flat, listings flat. When sales drop and prices don't, it means sellers aren't under pressure.
The Luxury Market: $3 Million and Up
Title Guaranty released its 2026 Hawaii Luxury Market Report in September, and the Hawaii Island pages tell a very different story from the rest of this post. While overall sales slowed, the top of the market got busier. Hawaii Island recorded 85 sales at $3 million and up in the first half of 2026, compared with 72 in the first half of 2025. That's an 18% increase.
The real headline is the ultra-luxury tier. Hawaii Island closed 20 sales of $10 million or more in the first half of the year, out of 32 statewide. That's more than Oahu, Maui and Kauai combined, and it's already close to last year's full-year total of 24.
North Kona led the way, with 46 sales at $3 million and up and 15 at $10 million or more. Ten of those came in the second quarter alone, tying the busiest quarter in Title Guaranty's data going back to 2022. California buyers led the list there, followed by Hawaii and Washington.
The Kohala Coast had an even bigger jump. South Kohala closed 34 sales at $3 million and up, against 28 in the first half of 2025, a 21% increase, and 5 sales above $10 million, up from 2. One surprise: the top buyer origin on the Kohala Coast was Hawaii, with 10 buyers, ahead of California with 8. Combined, North Kona and the Kohala Coast accounted for 80 of the island's 85 luxury sales.
| 2026 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
Hawaii Island sales $3M+ (Jan to June) | 85 | 72 | Up 18% |
Hawaii Island sales $10M+ (Jan to June) | 20 | 15 | Up 33% |
North Kona sales $3M+ (Jan to June) | 46 | 43 | Up 7% |
North Kona sales $10M+ (Jan to June) | 15 | 13 | Up 15% |
Kohala Coast sales $3M+ (Jan to June) | 34 | 28 | Up 21% |
Kohala Coast sales $10M+ (Jan to June) | 5 | 2 | Up 3 sales |
Luxury buyers from the mainland | 73% | 76% | Steady |
Luxury purchases paid in cash | 77% | 76% | Steady |
Who's buying? Mostly mainland buyers paying cash. About 73% of this year's Hawaii Island luxury buyers came from the mainland, and California led the list for North Kona. About 77% of luxury purchases closed with no mortgage. That's why 7% rates barely register at this level. Most of the people buying a $5 million home in Kona or on the Kohala Coast aren't calling a lender. They're calling their financial advisor.
This also explains a puzzle in the tables above. North Kona home dollar volume is up 23% for the year while the median is down 5.7%. That isn't homes getting more valuable. It's more big-ticket sales in the mix. A busy luxury tier is good news for the market as a whole, but it doesn't help a condo seller in town, and we won't pretend it does.
What This Means for Buyers
If you've been watching from the mainland waiting for Kona home prices to break, September is a good month to rethink the plan. Sales slowed sharply, which is exactly when you'd expect sellers to blink. They didn't. The North Kona median held at $1.3 million, inventory stayed flat at around 150 homes, and pending sales ticked up from 44 to 47 heading into October. That isn't a market about to drop. It's a market waiting to see who goes first.
What you do have is choice and time. Roughly 47% of active Kona homes have had a price reduction at some point, which tells you list prices are coming down to meet sold prices, not the other way around. A home that has been reduced and is still sitting is your negotiating opportunity. A well-priced home that just hit the market is not, and waiting for it to fall may just mean watching someone else buy it.
Condos are a different story. The North Kona condo median is down about 8% for the year, which is more than we anticipated when 2026 started, and supply is close to nine months. There are a few signs the decline may be settling. Active condo listings dropped from 197 to 184 in September, pending sales rose from 24 to 28, and price per square foot barely moved month to month. That's one month of data, not a trend, and we're not ready to call a bottom. What we can say is that buyers have real leverage right now, and they may not have quite as much of it a few months from now if those numbers hold. If you're financing, rates just moved against you, so get current numbers from your lender before you write an offer. And if the building is leasehold, understand exactly what you're buying first. Our guide to leasehold vs. fee simple in Kona walks through the difference.
What This Means for Sellers
Here's the good news. Buyers are waiting for you to cut your price, and the data says you mostly don't have to, provided you priced it right to begin with. In Kona, homes that go under contract are far less likely to have needed a price cut than the ones still sitting. Price to what is selling today, not to 2022, and not to what your neighbor is asking.
Timing matters too. Kona's prime selling season starts in late November, when the mainland turns cold and the visitors and snowbirds come back. The buyers touring in December want homes that are photographed, repaired, and ready. If you're thinking about selling this winter, the time to get ready is now, not in January.
Condo sellers, we won't sugarcoat it. Prices are down more than most of us expected, and with nearly nine months of supply, buyers can afford to wait you out. If the market is stabilizing, the sellers who benefit will be the ones priced to today's sales, not last year's. Holding out for a rebound that hasn't shown up yet is how a listing ends up on the reduced list.
One Thing Worth Watching
Mortgage rates crossed 7% in late September for the first time since January 2025. Freddie Mac's 30-year average hit 7.28% on October 1, up from 6.34% a year earlier. Plenty of Kona buyers pay cash, so this lands unevenly: hardest on financed condo buyers, lightest at the top of the market. The real question for the next two months is whether the buyers who arrive for the winter season keep holding out for a drop or decide it isn't coming. We'll tell you what they do.
Let's Talk
Numbers tell part of the story. Your property and your situation tell the rest. If you want to talk through what this market means for a specific home or neighborhood, call us at 808-854-5432 or reach out through our contact page.
Mark Davis, Esq. and Brenda Kuessner are Kona Homes for Sale at Coldwell Banker Island Properties, Kailua-Kona, Hawaii. Mark practiced as a transactional and litigation real estate attorney for 35 years before moving to the Big Island full time. Brenda has sold property on the Big Island for 35 years and holds the Certified Residential Specialist (CRS) designation, held by less than 5% of agents nationwide. This post is for general informational purposes and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice.
Data sources: Coldwell Banker Island Properties Hawaii Island Market Update, September 2026; Hawaii Information Service MLS Sales Statistics, September 2026 (as of 10/15/2026); Title Guaranty Hawaii Residential Sales Report, September 2026; Title Guaranty Hawaii's Luxury Market Report, September 15, 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 1, 2026. Data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and is subject to change.
