As of July 2025, the Kailua-Kona luxury market had settled into something most buyers and sellers had not seen in a few years: a genuine negotiating environment. Overall Kona sales were running about 10% below 2024 pace, inventory had loosened to roughly 4.5 months of supply, and properties above $2 million were sitting longer and selling at lower percentages of list price than they had during the peak years. None of that means the market had broken down. It means the dynamic had shifted in ways that rewarded buyers who did their homework and penalized sellers who priced for 2022.
This post captures what the numbers showed at that point in time. For the most current picture, see our Kona market reports.
Key Takeaways
- Overall Kona pending and total sales were down approximately 10% year over year through mid-2025.
- Homes priced $3M to $4M were selling at about 96% of list price with an average of 19 days on market.
- The $2M to $3M range showed more softness — roughly 93% of list price and an average of 79 days on market.
- The $1M to $1.5M tier remained competitive at 97.2% of list price and approximately 59 days to close.
- The average Kailua-Kona home value was approximately $901,745, down about 2.4% year over year per Zillow as of June 2025.
- About 72% of sales closed below list price, with only 8.8% selling above asking.
- Inventory at roughly 4.5 months of supply pointed to a balanced to slightly buyer-favoring market.
How the Luxury Tiers Were Behaving Differently
The most useful thing about the mid-2025 data is that it did not tell one uniform story. The luxury market in Kona behaved differently depending on where a property was priced, and understanding those differences mattered a lot depending on which side of the transaction you were on.
At the top of the market, homes priced between $3 million and $4 million were actually moving with some efficiency — averaging 19 days on market and closing at about 96% of list price. That is a tighter spread than many buyers expected given the overall slowdown. Properties at this level tend to attract cash buyers who are less rate-sensitive and more focused on finding the right asset in the right location. Supply is genuinely limited in that tier, which kept competition real even in a softer overall market.
The $2 million to $3 million range told a different story. Average days on market stretched to about 79 days and sale-to-list ratios dropped to roughly 93%. That gap — nearly 7% below asking on average — represented real negotiating room for prepared buyers. Properties that had been sitting for 60 days or more were often the ones where sellers had priced to last year's market and were now adjusting to the current one.
The $1 million to $1.5 million tier held the firmest. At 97.2% of list price and approximately 59 days to close, this segment had more competition than the tiers above it. Buyers in this range had less room to negotiate and needed to move faster when the right property appeared.
What the Broader Price Data Showed
Zillow pegged the average Kailua-Kona home value at approximately $901,745 as of late June 2025, down about 2.4% year over year. The median listing price was running around $894,333 while the median closed sale price as of May 31 was approximately $922,667 — a spread that reflects the mix of properties actually closing versus those sitting on the market.
Realtor.com had the median listing price at $907,500 for June 2025, a drop of about 4.3% year over year. Homes were going pending in roughly 49 days. About 72% of sales closed below list price, and only 8.8% sold above asking. That last figure is the clearest single indicator of how different the market felt from 2021 and 2022, when above-list closings were common and multiple-offer situations were routine.
The Prime Luxury Enclaves Were Holding Separately
One important nuance in the Kona luxury data is that the broader market numbers do not fully capture what was happening in the gated resort communities. Hualalai, Kohanaiki, and Mauna Lani were continuing to attract serious interest from high-net-worth domestic and international buyers — many of them cash purchasers who are largely insulated from the rate environment that was cooling activity in the broader market.
Supply in those communities is structurally limited by design. Homesites and resale properties in Hualalai or Kukio do not come available frequently, and when they do the buyer pool is specific and motivated. The softening visible in the broader $2M to $3M market did not apply uniformly to these enclaves in mid-2025. If you are focused on one of those communities specifically, the market dynamics are different enough to warrant a separate conversation.
What This Meant in Practice
For buyers in mid-2025, the window above $2 million offered something genuinely uncommon in recent Kona history — the ability to negotiate. Properties with longer market exposure were often priced by sellers who had not yet adjusted to current conditions, and those gaps created real opportunity for buyers who were prepared and patient.
For sellers, the data made one thing clear: pricing to closed comps from 2023 or 2024 was a reliable path to sitting on the market for 90 days and eventually accepting less than you would have gotten with a realistic list price from the start. The sellers who were closing were the ones who priced to where the market actually was, not where they remembered it being.
Mid-2025 Luxury Market at a Glance
| Insight | Details |
|---|---|
| Negotiation leverage | Sellers in the $2M to $4M segment were often more flexible, especially for properties with longer market exposure. |
| Competitive mid-tier | Properties priced $1M to $1.5M moved faster and closer to asking price — less room for price adjustments. |
| Balanced luxury market | Approximately 4.5 months of inventory pointed to neither a strong seller's nor buyer's market. |
| Downward pricing drift | Average and sale prices had retreated 2 to 4% year over year, indicating mild softening in demand. |
| Limited supply, steady demand | Luxury homes in prime resort enclaves remained sought after, often by cash buyers, sustaining long-term value. |
Frequently Asked Questions
Was the Kona luxury market in decline in 2025?
Not in any structural sense. Sales volume was down about 10% from 2024 and prices had softened modestly, but inventory remained relatively tight and demand from cash buyers in the premium resort communities stayed consistent. A 2 to 4% price correction after several years of strong appreciation is a normalization, not a collapse. The market was cooling, not breaking.
Which price range had the most negotiating room in mid-2025?
The $2 million to $3 million range. Properties in that tier were averaging about 79 days on market and closing at roughly 93% of list price — nearly 7% below asking on average. That spread represented real opportunity for buyers who were prepared and not in a rush. The $3M to $4M tier was tighter than many expected, with shorter days on market and sale-to-list ratios closer to 96%.
What does 4.5 months of inventory mean for buyers and sellers?
Inventory measured in months of supply tells you roughly how long it would take to sell all current listings at the current pace of sales. Six months is generally considered a balanced market. At 4.5 months, mid-2025 Kona was balanced to slightly favoring buyers — enough supply to give buyers options and negotiating room without tipping into a full buyer's market where sellers feel significant pressure.
Are the resort communities like Hualalai and Kukio affected by the broader market slowdown?
Less so than the broader market. Buyers in those communities tend to be cash purchasers who are not rate-sensitive, and supply is structurally limited by the nature of those developments. When a Hualalai or Kukio property comes available, the buyer pool is motivated and specific. The softening visible in the broader $2M to $3M market did not apply uniformly to those enclaves in mid-2025.
How should sellers price a luxury home in a softening market?
Price to current closed comps, not to where the market was a year or two ago. In mid-2025, the sellers who were closing were the ones who had accepted that conditions had changed and listed accordingly. Properties priced to peak market expectations were sitting for 90-plus days and ultimately accepting less than a realistic list price would have produced from the start. The first price is the best price — that principle matters most when the market is cooling.
If you are a buyer looking at the luxury market in Kona or a seller trying to understand how to position your property in the current environment, reach out to us at Team Kuessner Davis or call 808-854-5432.
Mark Davis, Esq. is a licensed real estate broker (RB-23769) with Kona Homes for Sale at Coldwell Banker Island Properties, Kailua-Kona, Hawaii. He practiced as a transactional and litigation real estate attorney for 35 years before moving to the Big Island full time. He currently serves as a member of the Hawaii County Real Property Tax Board of Appeal. Brenda Kuessner has sold property on the Big Island for 35 years and holds the Certified Residential Specialist (CRS) designation, earned by less than 5% of agents nationwide. This post is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or tax advice.
